Monday, January 7, 2008

Should Caldwell go?

Alabama center Antoine Caldwell has until Jan. 15 to decide whether or not he'll give up his final year of eligibility and enter the NFL draft. Perhaps expediting Caldwell's decision, however, is the fact that spring classes at Alabama begin on Wednesday.

So look for Caldwell to make his decision in the next 48 hours. But until then, should he stay or should he go?

It's an interesting debate, particularly in Caldwell's case.

On the "go" side, he's already graduated from Alabama, so staying in school to get his degree isn't an issue. There's also the constant specter of serious injury next season, which would obviously affect Caldwell's draft prospects for 2009.

On the "stay" side, Caldwell could probably improve his stock if he stays in school, particularly if Alabama has a good season on the field. A big senior year --- he's a likely preseason candidate for all-conference and All-America recognition, as well as some individual awards --- might vault him into the first couple of rounds.

Centers and guards don't usually go that high in the draft; you have to be an exceptional player to do so. Since 2003, there have been 33 interior linemen drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL draft --- 13 centers and 20 guards.

Only six of those --- two centers and four guards --- have been taken in the first round, and none before the No. 19 overall pick.

Here's the complete list (number in parentheses is overall draft order):

2007 (6 --- 2 C, 4 G)
First round

(29) Ben Grubbs, G, Auburn --- Baltimore
Second round
(35) Arron Sears, G, Tennessee --- Tampa Bay
(39) Justin Blaylock, G, Texas --- Atlanta
(59) Ryan Kalil, C, Southern Cal --- Detroit
(60) Samson Satele, C, Hawaii --- Miami
Third round
(88) Andy Alleman, G, Akron --- New Orleans

2006 (7 --- 4 C, 3 G)
First round

(23) Davin Joseph, G, Oklahoma --- Tampa Bay
(29) Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State --- N.Y. Jets
Second round
(41) Deuce Lutui, G, Southern Cal --- Arizona
(51) Ryan Cook, C, New Mexico --- Minnesota
(56) Chris Chester, C, Oklahoma --- Baltimore
Third round
(65) Charles Spencer, G, Pittsburgh --- Houston
(75) Jason Spitz, C, Louisville --- Green Bay

2005 (6 --- 2 C, 4 G)
First round

(32) Logan Mankins, G, Fresno State --- New England
Second round
(33) David Baas, C, Michigan --- San Francisco
Third round
(79) Evan Mathis, G, Alabama --- Carolina
(81) Richie Incognito, C, Nebraska --- St. Louis
(94) Adam Snyder, G, Oregon --- San Francisco
(100) Nick Kaczur, G, Toledo --- New England

2004 (7 --- 2 C, 5 G)
First round

(19) Vernon Carey, G, Miami --- Miami
Second round
(34) Chris Snee, G, Boston College --- N.Y. Giants
(45) Jake Grove, C, Virginia Tech --- Oakland
(46) Justin Smiley, G, Alabama --- San Francisco
Third round
(66) Nick Hardwick, C, Purdue --- San Diego
(83) Stephen Peterman, G, LSU --- Dallas
(84) Sean Locklear, G, N.C. State --- Seattle

2003 (7 --- 3 C, 4 G)
First round

(21) Jeff Faine, C, Notre Dame --- Cleveland
Second round
(33) Eric Steinbach, G, Iowa --- Cincinnati
(38) Al Johnson, C, Wisconsin --- Dallas
(50) Bruce Nelson, C, Iowa --- Carolina
Third round
(72) Vince Manuwai, G, Hawaii --- Jacksonville
(81) Derrick Dockery, G, Texas --- Washington
(87) Taylor Whitley, G, Texas A&M --- Miami

There are a lot of good players on the that list, but just as many guys who are no longer in the league.

Caldwell has played four positions in his college career, but his pro future probably lies at center. And an average of a little more than two centers per year have been drafted in the first three rounds since 2003.

Caldwell is rated among the Top 5 centers for this year's draft --- alongside such players as Arkansas' Jonathan Luigs, Bowling Green's Kory Liechstenstein, Wake Forest's Steve Justice and Cal's Alex Mack. Luigs and Mack, like Caldwell, are juniors who have yet to make their intentions known.

I honestly don't know what I would do if I was Caldwell.

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